Christmas reading, listening and viewing list

Christmas reading, listening and viewing list

We are publishing our annual Christmas reading list today. It offers a break from the rigours of Christmas with an eclectic mix of free, online articles, a podcast and a video. To read later, you can save them on your smartphone's or tablet's reading list. 

• According to an old French saying, the art of taxation is “to pluck the goose so as to obtain the largest number of feathers with the least hissing”. In this piece, Financial Times columnist Tim Harford looks at how, over the centuries, people have responded to taxation by changing their behaviour and, at times, the architecture of cities. He offers recommendations on how the state could fill its coffers without setting off harmful changes in individual and corporate behaviour.

• https://timharford.com/2022/11/how-to-tax-a-guide-for-governments/

• By the end of the century, Africa, which accounted for less than one-tenth of the world’s population in 1950, will be home to 40% of humanity. As its population surges, people are flocking to big cities. How African nations, especially in coastal west Africa, manage the fastest urbanisation in human history has implications for global growth, migration and the transition to net zero. This article from The Guardian explores some of the challenges and opportunities, including the construction of vast new infrastructure schemes such as the West African Highway.
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/27/megalopolis-how-coastal-west-africa-will-shape-the-coming-century

• Recent developments in artificial intelligence have created computers that can write essays, compose poems, create new art and write programming code. Former Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith and AI researcher roon argue that, much like past innovations, AI will not destroy jobs. Instead they believe it will raise productivity and completely alter the nature of creative and professional occupations such as art, finance, industrial design and law.
• https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/generative-ai-autocomplete-for-everything

• The escalator is a mundane invention that we take for granted, but this Smithsonian article argues that it has shaped modern cities, transforming transport systems, department stores and offices. Today’s escalators are little changed from the original design of the late 19th century, but they continue to spread with urbanisation, their numbers doubling every ten years. As the population density of cities rises, we become ever more dependent on the ‘moving staircase’.
• https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/how-escalator-forever-changed-our-sense-space-180972468/

• Financial innovations and crashes have a long history. This Bloomberg "Odd Lots" podcast features an interview with economic historian Brad DeLong, drawing parallels between past asset price bubbles, especially the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s, and the rise and recent fall of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. DeLong discusses potential risks associated with cryptocurrencies and highlights the benefits of innovation in transforming financial markets.
• https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/brad-delong-on-the-ftx-collapse-and-the-south-sea

• This time last year, Wordle, the word-guessing game, took over our mobile phones. It became so popular that it was acquired by The New York Times in January. Most Wordle users have their favourite strategies fine-tuned through experience. This article discusses potential strategies for winning the game using probability and statistics.
• https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-math-behind-wordle-guesses-20221202/

• The last decade has seen growing scrutiny of globalisation and its impact on jobs and livelihoods in the West. With the pandemic, we've also seen a surge in demand for locally produced goods across the developed world. But how could ‘localisation’ work in practice? In this Financial Times film, the FT's global business columnist Rana Foroohar, follows the suppliers of apparel-maker American Giant and shows how US businesses and communities can benefit from local supply chains.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUdIz21P7zE 

• Why did two Hollywood actors, who knew little about football, buy a mid-tier professional club in Wales? And how have they found ownership so far? This GQ article follows Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney through their rollercoaster first season as owners of Wrexham AFC, in which the middling club came tantalisingly close to becoming National League champions and promotion.
• https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/wrexham-fc-ryan-reynolds-rob-mcelhenney

For the latest charts and data on health and economics, visit our Economics Monitor:
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/covid-19-economics-monitor.html

OUR REVIEW OF LAST WEEK’S NEWS
The UK FTSE 100 equity index ended the week down 1.1% at 7,476.

 UK economics

• House prices in the UK fell 2.3% between October and November, the fastest pace since the financial crisis, according to lender Halifax
• The CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index slowed down to a three-month low in November due to higher mortgage rates reducing housing demand
• Kantar’s estimate of UK grocery inflation remained at 15% in November. Kantar suggested that inflation may be peaking
• UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt laid out plans to deregulate the financial services industry in what is widely seen as the largest change in rules in 30 years
• The RMT Union, the Royal College of Nursing, UK Border Force staff and ambulance services in England and Wales plan to strike over the coming months
• The UK government announced it will use the armed forces to ease disruptions over Christmas caused by industrial action

Global economics

• In a major U-turn by president Xi Jinping, China relaxed its COVID-19 restrictions
• Inflation in China slowed down in the year to November to 1.6% as the impact of the pandemic and restrictions reduced demand
• EU governments are pushing for tougher energy price caps that would be triggered if gas prices reach €220 per megawatt hour
• The US labour market showed signs of cooling as continuing jobless claims jumped to the highest level since February
• The Wall Street Journal cited research from Goldman Sachs showing that US fund managers increasingly expect a soft landing for the US economy
• The Institute for Supply Management’s index showed robust growth in the US service sector
• Retail sales in the euro area fell by 1.8% in October
• The EU revealed a plan to collect up to an additional €18bn per year in VAT including mandatory real-time digital reporting by companies selling goods across borders within the bloc
• The Bank of Canada increased its interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% but signalled it could be the last increase as the economy showed signs of cooling
• Saudi Arabia recorded a budget surplus of $27bn this year due to higher than expected oil prices, the largest in almost a decade
• Crude oil prices fell below $80 per barrel last Wednesday after Chinese trade data pointed to a global slowdown in growth
• US natural gas price fell by more than 10% last Monday due to a warmer than expected winter and low fuel demand
• The Wall Street Journal reported that the average price of US gasoline (petrol) has declined to $3.29, below its average of $3.36 last year

Business

• UK builder Berkley cut its future earning guidance in response to a cooling housing market and higher mortgage interest rates
• Norway’s sovereign fund chief executive Nicolai Tangen vowed to take more action to influence companies to improve their ESG credentials
• In an article on supply chains, the FT reported that the clothing retailer Mango has 408 suppliers while Apple has 180 direct suppliers
• Petrobras's CEO announced that he is set to leave the company, ahead of a possible shift in corporate strategy under president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
• The UK Financial Conduct Authority said that it would crack down on “illegal, unfair or misleading financial marketing” from buy now, pay later businesses
• The US Federal Trade Commission announced that it would seek to block Microsoft’s $75bn acquisition of video game maker Activision Blizzard on competition grounds
• Premium clothing company Lululemon posted weaker than expected earning guidance for the fourth quarter
• Sam Bankman-Fried is set to testify at the US Congress hearing following the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX

Global and political developments

• The oil price cap agreed by the G7, EU and Australia kicked in last Monday limiting the price of Russian oil to $60 per barrel
• Russia responded by threatening to cut oil output
• Russia warned that it plans to retake parts of south-eastern Ukraine, following a successful Ukraine counter-offensive in the region
• NATO secretary general Joel Stoltenberg said that the conditions for a peaceful settlement in the Ukraine conflict are “not there now”
• Hungary blocked an €18bn EU financial aid package destined for Ukraine as division deepen between Budapest and Brussels
• Peru’s president Pedro Castillo was impeached and charged with “rebellion” following his attempt to dissolve congress
• Dr Anthony Fauci, Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, said that China needs “a proactive vaccination campaign” to avoid a wave of COVID-19 infections
• German police arrested 25 right-wing supporters of a ‘domestic terrorist organisation’ accused of planning to overthrow the state
• The Democratic Party in the US expanded its majority in the Senate after Raphael Warnock won the run-off election in Georgia
• The US House of Representatives passes a bipartisan bill to protect the rights of same-sex and interracial couples to marry

And finally… police in Texas apprehended a “reckless driver” that turned out to be a dog after crashing into two cars in a supermarket parking lot - a real collie-sion!